Energy Efficient Lighting
Aug/12

31

LEDs ‘to outsell CFLs and halogens by 2018’

An interesting news article on LEDs from September’s issue of LUX magazine:

LEDs are set to overtake compact fluorescent and halogen lamps as the top selling light source by 2018, according to IMS research. IMS believes LED-based lamps and luminaires will command 30% of the market in terms of units, and even more in terms of revenues because of their higher price tags. IMS also expects lighting to overtake TVs as the main application for gallium nitride (GaN) LEDs – the bright blue devices used to produce white light for backlighting screens and general illumination – perhaps as soon as this year.

We are currently ‘between the backlighting boom and the lighting boom’, Jamie Fox, lighting and LEDs manager at IMS, told the EuroLED conference. As the backlighting market becomes saturated, future growth in sales of GaN LEDs ‘really depends on how much lighting takes off’.

Currently the overall LED market is flat, but there could be double-digit growth between 2013 and 2017, Fox said. Lighting is expected to represent a much bigger proportion of LED revenues – approaching half by 2016.

‘People who dont like CFLs will likely find LEDs compelling at 2013-15 pricing levels as incandescents are phased out’ said Fox. ‘Consumers are increasingly aware of LED lamps, but many arent ready to move just yet’.

LEDs currently represent 1% of the lighting market in terms of units sold, but 14% of revenue – so there is significant growth potential.

The market for GaN LEDs will peak in 2015 at more than US$11 billion (7bn GBP), IMS believes, with revenue from lighting making up about US$4.5 billion (2.9bn GBP). LED product prices are expected to fall until 2019/20, then level off.

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